I only ever bid to a price that I am prepared to pay (and that includes postage/freight). I do my reseaerch and use chainreactioncycles and Wiggle for comparison prices for cycling stuff.

I'll place stuff on my watch list for two reasons as mentioned previously in this thread: (a) because I don't have the moula right now to pay for it and (b) I am in the market for the item, but I want to see how much demand there is for it which influences price.

I think phantom bidding by associates of the sellers also is rampant. You will get someone bidding on an item very early in an auction (like a day in on a 10-day listing) and the price will already be around what I might consider market level. Then there is a long, dormant period, although other bids might nibble. But when the original bid is still higher again, I figure it's time to look elsewhere.

The same thing can appy to sniping, too. An associate of the seller may well come in to try to lift the price higher on someone who has bid earlier. The whole lot is fraught with manipulation, and putting items on watch can help decide if this in fact is going on.

The key to eBay bidding, for me, is not being desperate for an item. And the only way to see what market value is likely to be is to put items on watch.