Ohhhhh boy. You expect us to help reduce the confusion? You're so naive. :-)

Here's what works for me: a Blackburn Expedition rack and a set of Racktime panniers. They're made by Orlieb but aren't waterproof, and hence don't cost a premium. They do have a built-in rain cover though for the times when the weatherdudes get a forecast wrong and I get caught. The mounting system is robust and locks nicely to the rack, and the back support is stiff enough so there's no worry of a pannier flexing into the spokes. There's a nice little pocket on top I use for the padlock for bike lockers at work, and my entry card.

For me, this combo provides probably the best value for my half century commute.