Botero! Indifferent stage 1 TT, going to have 1 horrible day in the mtns., and by then... the booby prize beckons.
Yeah it's gotta be smb. from a team without any genuine GC aspirant, and plus without a long early TT for people to lose lots of time on, anyone even remotely near the top of GC will be well marked the first couple of steep stages. I think it'll either be a random, upper-middle-of-the-pack climbing domestique, or a GC aspirant who blows up on the first mtn. stage or two and has a crap finish guaranteed, thereby allowing them some off-the-front freedom. Piepoli? Kirchen? Mayo? Heras? Botero! That's my pick.
All I hope is that it's a competition with more than one rider actually interested; anyone complaining about USPS' total control of the race the past few years hasn't paid attention to how dreadful the KoM "competition" has been.