Originally Posted by
DX-MAN
1. You do more miles than before, spokes MAY break sooner; they surely WON'T, though, if you're not riding.
2. It's a random thing; there's no way to really CSI this issue.
I'm tough on bikes and parts; big guy, pedal hard, like to bunnyhop rough stuff while I'm out, that sort of thing. I RARELY get more than 2-3 years out of a wheelset, no matter who made it. Also, I've had cheaper wheelsets give up spokes more quickly (but when I replace them, they NEVER break again, always a different one), as well as the issue of splitting rims. THAT doesn't seem to be a function of what I spent on the wheels, though......
Never expect things to just keep going; it's a bike, not an Energizer Bunny. Modern bikes are built with more inherent fragility, as they are made lighter for performance. Metal fatigues under stress, and less metal fatigues more quickly.
I build wheels for big guys who carry big loads over long distances... 3 years tells me nothing of mileage and conditions and if you are running stock wheels the failure rate tends to be much higher than with hand built or better quality wheels.
I have wheels out there that have seen in excess of 10,000 km and have never needed a touch with a spoke wrench and my own wheels generally see a spoke wrench when it is time to replace a rim which is usually at 20,000 plus km.
My wife rides every day and is hard on wheels as she does not ride light and often tows a trailer... with weather factored in she has been getting 16,000 km out of her wheels that see a great deal of wet riding.