Something not mentioned yet is your position on the final lap.
I have found that if I am not in the top three coming out of the last turn, chances are, I'm not going to win the sprint. It is much more difficult to pass 4-9 guys than to pass one or two. And if you are closer to the front, or on the front, on the final lap, you can chose the best line and make anyone faster than you go around you.