I live in what I consider an incredibly moderate climate: i don't think it's ever been less than 55 degrees when I've ridden, and usually when it rains it is closer to the low 60s. I commute on average about 25 miles a day. On a busy (but usually fair-weathered day) i can push 50. I prefer layering, so i feel that thermal insulation isn't my priority. I've worn a nice (i believe it was an old Patagonia) shell on a few rides, which helped a bit- but I'm a bit on the tall, skinny side and ended up with a lot of water and grime sprayed up the back of my shirt and down my pants...

As for budget, I could probably ultimately fork out up to 200 bucks on a jacket, maybe 250. But jeez it better be nice.