love my ortlieb panniers, and i recommend their products. The last bag on your list is a good choice

You're not going to be happy with most of the camelbak options -- they're meant for water and snacks on a ride, not a laptop and change of clothes. I'd guess the timbuk2 backpack would be good (I like my messenger bag, but would want it on both shoulders if I was carrying real weight more than 20 minutes).

Don't forget some decent lights.