Possibly. Look at my avatar photo. Better yet, here's the full image.



That day was 25-28°F. I wore three light layers on top. (I generally use wicking long-sleeve t-shirts. They're cheaper and thinner than "baselayers".) The outermost layer was my BikeForums.Net Great Lakes Region short-sleeve summer jersey. (You can see where the short sleeves end on my arm holding the camera.) I added armwarmers under the t-shirts for the third layer on my arms. I was a little too warm that day, but I was doing a lot of climbing, so I was making more heat than usual.

When I commute at the same temps, I wear one wicking long-sleeve t-shirt, and my Endura Gridlock hardshell jacket. Same overall effect, just a different way of getting there.

In other words, if you're adding layers, lose the shell. If you're using the shell, reduce layers.