It sounds like you're on the right track. How long is your commute? Dialing it in correctly gets more critical with time out on the road. I'd skip the cotton too if there's any length involved. Wet cotton just isn't as comfortable/warm as modern fibers.

For 30F, I'd have a light weight poly short sleeve T, lt wt long sleeve, and med wt long sleeve, with wind breaker with hood, skipping the balaclava. I've got a beard though so that helps. :-) For legs, shorts, med wt poly, and wind pants. And as to layering, it's so dependent on conditions and actual layers. My hooded wind breaker's zipper leaks more air than my non-hooded wind breaker, requiring that short sleeve T I could do without with the non-hooded.