#2 or #3. #1 is highly likely to be rainy - and it's not just drizzle, you can get massive storms. If you were able to decide at the last minute, when you could see enough forecast to be confident, you could try the coast, but with plane tickets involved, I wouldn't. Storms often last several days to a week, so waiting them out might be an issue with a timeframe.
If you can, fly Southwest for easy to change plane tickets and a decent rate for carrying the bike.