Undoubtedly it will sway a few more people who otherwise wouldn't bother. It won't make a tremendous change I don't think. Last gas spike I noticed a slight decrease in traffic. A slight lowering of average speed on interstates. Slightly fewer hulking SUV's and pickups most being replaced by older smaller or just smaller vehicles (though not so small).

More noticeable were people trying out motorcycles and more so scooters for very local trips.

My guess is the reaction will be smaller this time as people have gotten used to somewhat higher prices in the interim. I also think people powered transport will be the last option after smaller cars, fewer trips, and scooters. One reason is so many are not fit to use a bike. Some have been so unfit, and become so large for so long they couldn't if they wanted to. Many who might manage will despair at being able to do so. (I say this as someone who weighed over 300 lbs 4 years ago and weigh 185 now). Now I loved biking earlier in life, just let myself get busy with other things. Finally returned to it, but that doesn't happen often. No secret to it, mostly just decided I was going to make it happen.