Last year, I planned to only ride on sunny days. for whatever reason, weather.com kept showing storms in the afternoon every day, but they never materialized. I finally decided to ride if it wasn't raining in the morning (if it's raining when I leav,e I just drive) & the chance of rain during the commute home was less than 60%. I've only been caught in rain a couple of times since. BTW, fenders are nice anyways, to keep off the road spray when there was a sotrm overnight, or during the work day.