My rule of thumb is that high-end, expensive, desirable things become valuable vintage items after about thirty years.
People want the XYZ when they are 15 y/o to 25 y/o, but can only gaze at them in the XYZ dealer window or at the XYZ races, they can't afford the real XYZ but have to settle for a cheaper model without the capital letters. Then they go into the career rat race, start families, have kids, whatever and forget about XYZs.
"
When I was a child, I spoke and thought and reasoned as a child. But when I grew up, I put away childish things"
One day they wake up into a mid-life crisis, which takes many forms and can happen anywhere from 30s y/o to 60s y/o, and want to recapture their youth by getting the XYZ that they lusted after as a youth. And now . . . they can afford it.
With luck, they can still fit into or onto the XYZ - aren't we lucky to covet vintage bicycles instead of, say, vintage miniskirts! - and soon their garage is full of XYZs and other childish things, and their spouse is irate - but, as I tell my wife,
"dear, aren't you happy that my mid-life crisis doesn't involve fast cars and blondes? and what shall I make you for dinner?".
Thus the world of C&V is inexorably moving into the 1980's, the early carbon fiber bikes, and soon the early high-end mountain bikes.
When vintage mountain bikes are fully collectible, it will be interesting to see how the supply holds up. I suspect MTBs got thrashed and bashed more than road bikes. As for production numbers, does anyone know how the number of high-end mountain bikes made compares with high-end road bikes?
For example, there were about 2,400 (roughly) Bridgestone MB-Zips made, a lot of them were broken in races, but still they only fetch $400-650 on eBay - maybe 2,400 is actually a large number as far as bike model production goes?
Originally Posted by
randyjawa
I agree, in part, however; I can also see the day, in the not too distant future, when some vintage mountain bicycles will become sought after. The Specialized Stump Jumper, being one that immediately comes to mind.
In recent days, I have found a Tom Richey, a Scott, the Peugeot Canyon Express, a Baraccuda and a few others. These were all high end bicycles, in their day, and all had a following. Those people who lusted after such bikes, when the bikes were offered new, will become the group who wishes to find and restore their beloved mountain bicycle.
That is all opinion, of course, but my guess is that we will begin to see the old mounties fetching more and more, with the passing of time.