DXchulo

How could you not put Wiggins ahead of Schleck? You have the prologue (6.4km) plus a 41.5km TT and a 53.5km TT. That's 101.4km on the TT bike. Yesterday Wiggins gained 28 seconds on Schleck in a 5.7km prologue. Last year Schleck lost 2:31 to Evans over 42.5km, so even on the low end I'd expect Wiggins to gain 5 minutes on Schleck over 101.4km. There are only two summit finishes, so Wiggins would have to crack pretty hard to lose that much time. He lost 1:21 to Cobo on the Angliru stage at the Vuelta last year, which is much more difficult than any summit finish you'll see at the TDF in 2012.

As for peaking too early, there's really no evidence that Wiggins has peaked too early and there's no way to compare the 2011 Giro (absolutely brutal, 3 weeks) to the 2012 Dauphine (TDF warmup, 1 week). I'll give you the Cav argument, but RadioShack seems to be a dysfunctional mess at the moment and there is no TTT, so that may benefit Evans more than anybody.

However, I would say that the poor prologue performance is more worrisome than the 3:10 he lost today. Most of that was lost after the climb itself and towards the end they showed a shot of Schleck's group and they weren't exactly hammering to the finish line. I don't doubt that Schleck can find his climbing legs in time for the TDF and I will agree that he doesn't have to be on top form yet, but he needs to show something on Stage 4- that he was able to improve his TTing at least a little.