Can I afford to have my bike replaced? I guess so. Do I want to shell out the money doing that instead of, say, putting it into a mutual fund, or towards my grad school tuition bills etc? Yeah. I'd rather not throw money into the wind, just because I have it. Keep doing that, and you won't have any money left.
And yes, experienced thieves who have tools on hand will be able to steal your stuff, break into your house, chop your car, and make your girlfriend break up with you, no matter what you do.
But with all that in mind, I'd still rather lock up my bike so Joe Schmo Crackhead who is just looking for something easy to sell today isn't as tempted to make off with my gear.
Anyway my bike was locked up, but still stolen from my back patio last weekend. I bought a new one yesterday, but I'd rather have that $ to pay bills, or spend on things I didn't already own. New bike goes in the garage every time now, no more exceptions. And when tooling around the bike ALWAYS gets locked up, even if I can see it at all times.