I think that's right.

The lumens wars are just about over and I think that point is about 3600 lumens or so. After that, we're going to start the features war and the lens war. I just saw somewhere a light that automatically adjusts it's brightness (it's a 3600 lumen light, I think), wireless remotes, lens arrangements as you posted, better batteries and better battery mounts, etc... The price will also drop since it's driven by led and battery prices dropping. Eventually, when it gets to to the $200 price point, that's what pretty much serious riders will buy.

I've been riding with lights since the late '80s and it's always been about more lumens. But when I can get a set of lights that puts out essentially what a set of car headlights do on high beam, then that whole issue is dead. You don't need more than that on a bike unless you are going over 70mph or something insane.

When I ride now, I'm using a wilma at 1500 lumens on the bars and a piko 750 lumens on the helmet (i.e. 2250 lumens). When the two beams coincide, it's similar to the beam in your photo, but the lumen density is lower. My plan is to either upgrade the Piko to the new 900 lumen version when available or to put the 1500 lumen Wilma on the helmet and the new 2400 lumen Wilma on the bars. That ought to give a pattern and light density that is probably better than what you show in that image. I do like having a helmet light to look into corners and to make sure that cars see me on cross streets.

J.