I had the NiteRider Trail Rat, a 10 watt halogen. The bike it was on was stolen. When I replaced it, a 200 lumen LED seemed to be about the same amount of light.
These days, I've been very happy with the MagicShine 900-lumen MJ-808 and 1000-lumen MJ-808E lights. I've had the oldest one for three years. It's going into its fourth winter.
At $70 and $80, they're much cheaper than my old NiteRider was. I find little difference between the light output of the two models. If saving $10 is important, get the MJ-808. If you think you'[ll be switching between high, medium and low-beam a lot, the MJ-808E has a better switching pattern.