In the cold weather topic several people suggested I move from a backpack (I use a pheonix from timbuk2) to panniers.

I've already got a rack, so that's not an issue.

What I need to carry to work is a laptop, a pair of pants, 2 shirts, and a lunch. Possibly a jacket at some point as well.

When I get to work I need to be able to carry the panniers up two flights of stairs, probably a hundred feet, and then an elevator ride. I'll also likely be using them to transport the laptop sans clothes on the rare day I have to drive in to work (say, flat tire, or reporting to our 30 miles further away office).

So with all of THAT measely requirement, I'd also need something that's comfortable to carry, water and weatherproof (because getting to work with my work clothes soaked and muddy, or the laptop taking a bath, is not ideal), prefferably tough, and somewhat good looking, for use as say an office laptop bag.

I'm a big fan of timbuk2, and I love me some messenger bags. I've looked at their messenger style pannier, not sure how comfy that would be to use as an actual messenger. I don't have a prefference for dual/single style, or a manufacturer. Price is flexible, though I don't want to spend 5000$ on these. Probably in the 100-200 range. I'd rather pay for quality than buy cheap and replace.