I've always held that the USA had a paranoid, hysterical society, and this reinforces the belief.

Why would someone bother casing BF (assuming bike thieves think that far ahead) when they could go to any recreational trail and wait? Actually, why risk a prison sentence for assault and robbery, maybe with a deadly weapon, when they could simply and at low risk steal a locked bicycle thereby not drawing much police attention, and even if somehow caught face the much more minor charge of simple theft.

Bike thieves aren't necessarily smart, but they are practical, which is why they steal bikes instead of mugging people for their wallets.