Originally Posted by Helmet Head
Yes, and no.
If I don't have the additional data, then yes - because that's all I know.
Consider the odds of picking the winning numbers in a lottery. Say it's one in 100 million.
Now say you have additional data... from your crystal ball which tells you the winning numbers in advance. Now your odds are looking much better.
The point is that for 99,999,999 combinations, the odds of winning are actually 0, and the odds for the winning number winning is 1. But when we don't know which is the winning number, we just say the odds are all the same for all the numbers... 1 in 100,000,000.
But we do know that riding 'styles/behaviors' can vary widely and I do know you do agree that riding 'style/behavior' can greatly affect ones likelihood of an accident.
Your analogy above doesn't hold as we are not looking for winning numbers based on luck alone, but trends based on behavior.
Al