When you commute by bike, you quickly realize that weather forcasting frequently includes a good deal of hype used to generate advertising revenue. Forecasts cover a wide area and time period not necessarily relevant to your particular situation. You can become a pretty good forecaster of conditions by using multiple online sources, media and weather radar. For example, today's forecast called for a line of severe storms during the morning rush hour, but I correctly determined I could easily make it to work before they hit. If I had listened to the hype, I would have taken the car instead, and then sat in traffic with all the other miserable commuters.