Having spent "a frame" worth of money on a semi-aero bike (I won't say that my black frame is aero, just aero-styled) and having some belated discussions with one of the low speed wind tunnel guys, I decided that at a top, top, top level aero mass start frames may make a difference, on the track (sprint, keirin, etc) and on the road (both for sprinting as well as long breaks etc). However, for me, in a much more coarse environment, where 10 or 20 watts won't matter either way, it's not a big deal.

For example when I first assembled the orange bike, and for the year I raced it, the bearings weren't right. They were so wrong that I did a little experiment in SoCal immediately after I built it during my 2010 trip there. I got going down one of the many hills, maybe 35 mph, maybe 40 mph. I shifted into some tiny gear, like a 39x21 or so, and then pedaled at various rpms to see if my SRM would pick up anything, any resistance. I thought I might see a watt here and there but I had no idea what would happen.

At about 90 rpm I'd see 6 or 7 watts. At the fastest rpm I tried, 150 rpm, I saw 15 watts. I never engaged the freehub, i.e. I never pedaled fast enough to transmit power to the hub. Therefore all the wattage I was seeing was purely in mechanical friction resistance, and since the chain/pulleys don't generate much it was all in the BB bearings. (To give some idea of the friction I couldn't spin the crank more than about a half revolution and with one arm installed it would basically freeze when you let go, i.e. the single arm wouldn't fall to the bottom.)

I've since bought a BB30 reamer (cutting edge to fit a BB handle) and I sometimes see 1 watt if I repeat the experiment. Therefore the BB bearings were the culprit.

However, the year I had the "high resistance BB" I won and placed in enough races to upgrade to Cat 2. I had the second best season of my life, after an incredible-for-me 1992 season. The BB friction didn't hold me back, and in fact in some races I was dragging my rear brake on the hill in order to slow myself down.

Therefore in my world 10 or 20 watts isn't a big deal. I'm not going to make more or less money, I won't place much better or worse. The things holding me back are much bigger than a bit of friction in the bearings or some air resistance in the frame design. My limiters are more significant than those things - it's being a dad and things like that, doing stuff that I feel is more important than being what one of my teammates calls "an intramural star" aka "pro Cat 3".

If I could spend that frame money on a frame again I'd get a combination of the two bikes, the red and black ones. If I could I'd get a lighter bike, just because, but the red frame is close to optimal for me. The orange frame was 1450 grams I think, the black 1650, and the shortened and filed down orange one (now red) was 1300g. This is a solid pound heavier than the sort of standard 900g carbon frames out there (especially given my frame's small size).

I wouldn't change the geometry, keeping it the same as the red bike as it is now. I'd want to see if I could get more tire clearance and that's about it.