Originally Posted by
FanaticMN
The magnitude of the MOE still covers the differences some of us are citing. The semi-controlled comparison numbers I cited a page ago won't support making up facts. 2012: 4.5% +/- 0.8% MOE is larger than 2005: 2.4% +/- .5% --that's real data, and real growth. And, as I alluded to, I suspect that a lot of that MOE is month-of-year variation due to climate--the ACS is conducted every month, so Minneapolis, and other leading cycling areas, probably show lots of variance, but probably also approach or exceed double digit mode share in good weather in some areas . Yes, there is longitudinal variation. Yes, the numbers are still small. But there are data that need to be interpreted, not dismissed. I realize this is A&S, but numbers matter, too.
Yes, the margin of error covers the differences SOME of us are citing. So, looking at the Minneapolis numbers, what did you all do wrong in 2009, 2010, 2011, and what did you do so very right in 2012? (Or is it that the margin of error does *NOT* cover some of those year over year differences?) The story that you can truthfully tell is there is higher primary commute by bicycle in 2012 than in 2005. But panic over the noise in the measurements? Why?
Now go back at the OP and look at the Portland ACS data and add in the margin of error. Again, all you can really say is there are more primary bicycle commuters in Portland since 2008 than 2005. However, the change of commuters since 2008 is small compared to the margin of error, which is large! We can't say if it is flat, increasing, or decreasing. Panic over not knowing from the ACS? Or use other, more precise numbers that Portland collects?
The Boston ACS numbers are even more all over the place, and other than there are more cyclists commuting primarily by bicycle than in 2005, there's not much more to say. But local measurements tell the story.
That's my only point.
Oh, did I mention that bicycle parking at Alewife went from 200 unsecured, to 300 secured/200 unsecured, to 450 secured/200 unsecured?
Yes Virginia, if you build it, they will come.
-mr. bill