Seeing your pictures, i think 199 is a good start. Thinking i can do better now. I signed up for a few major rides this year to motivate me. I am now commuting 20 miles a day to work and on the weekend riding 25-45 miles a day (With climbs). Today my Garmin showed i burned 1600 calories which i know is way too high. I ate about 500 of those calories. Your right though, people overestimate what they burn and over eat. The last year i rode very sporadic and over ate all the time. The biggest thing is staying on track and keeping those calories under 2100 for me. Consistency is the key.