Usually there's a clear wear line at the ball track before the case flakes or collapses. Not seeing that, my gut instinct is that i was a crappy cone with a very thin hardened skin, and zero core support below.
If you want, you can mail it to me, an I'll do a hardness test both on n undamaged area of skin, and then grind off a bit to test the core.
One way to tell the difference (by wear) between too tight and too loose, is the position of th ball track, but I suspect thes are too fargone for that. However tight cones wear exactly at the same ball track of perfectly adjusted cones, while cones run loose will have a wear track at a smaller diameter. Sometines the cups also give some clues.
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