Hey Vasuvius.

I am very inexperienced but for what it's worth my FTP is at 260w right now and I would not consider myself a strong cat 5. I just did my first two complete races this past sat and sunday. I thought I was in outstanding conditioning and to my surprise I was just about average. Take it I am 163 pounds so you are considerably lighter but my FTP seems to be a full 80 watts higher (power meter measured). I averaged 250 watts yesterday for a 1 hour race. Normalized power was 265 watts. I am not sure if you can survive on 180ftp but 50% of it is being a smart rider and knowing how to place yourself during the race. I had the fitness equivalent of a cat 5 but the experience and group riding technique of a 4 year old. Results reflected this. I got dropped in the last 2 miles of the Crit and ended up 6th out of 16 or 17 riders on the RR. I can't handle attacks well and that I will address on my next few training sessions. POWEEEER!!!

Also, yes you can probably see a 10% increase in power, specially on the trainer. It will most likely tell you that the first day you did it you were somewhat tired, dehydrated or maybe hungry and the second day you were much more energetic. Variables tend to change things a lot. Specially when using estimates.