You know... it just might be that flashing lights do not allow an approaching or overtaking motorist to accurately judge your speed and direction... it doesn't matter. It does not matter! What matters is that the motorist is made aware of your presence on the road. In the rural conditions under which I ride at night a steady taillight isn't a liability. In a more urban setting... me personally, I'd flash. For the same reason ambulances, fire trucks, police cars, road work vehicles... in fact, just about every vehicle except passenger cars flash their running lights these days. Why do some of you think your brains work better than the collective knowledge base of hundreds of behavioral scientists and lighting tech engineers etc. Flashing gets attention. Period. That's all you need to know. Come on, you drive. You wind up behind bikes occasionally. Really. How bad is a flasher? How annoying for the 10 or 15 seconds that you are behind him or her? Don't you think you are worth being that pro-active about your chances when its your butt on the saddle?
I occasionally drive at night... sometimes I see a bike flasher with fresh batteries and the flasher is all I can see. Many times I never actually catch the bike, either it turns before I reach it or I do. How important was it that I know that it was exactly 200 feet ahead and traveling at 10mph? There have been three times in the last five years where at the end of my commute I discover that I have no rear flasher. I lost it somewhere along the way. That doesn't happen anymore because I securely attach my flashers and no longer move one from bike to bike. But I did. And without any flasher at all made it home safely!! Imagine that!
We overthink this stuff. We really do. When and if you get nailed it will not be because you didn't have enough steady or flashing wattage to alert the texting soccer mom in the overtaking minivan! I run 28mm Schwalbe Marathons because they are good tires. That they have a reflective sidewall is nice but I hope never to need it. In fact, I submit that if I am ever crosswise in front of an oncoming vehicle that is otherwise unaware of my presence in the intersection... ... game over. If I didn't see or hear him approach and placed myself in his path without making certain that he was slowing or stopping... ... game over. Mind you, I wear flashing arm-bands that are visible from the front-side and rear. They do not depend on an approaching vehicle having its headlights on and in the rural conditions in which I ride a vehicle can usually see things approaching the four way stop before they appear directly in front of it. If they flash.
H