Originally Posted by jmikami

The break is always a roll of the dice, especially without teammates, unless you put it all on the line your break is likely to fail. It is often going to be the other break that gets away and I don't think this is on you as much as breaks are not easy to form. Don't base your ROI on breaks, too variable IMO.

However, if you are too conservative and wait too long at the end, then you should be attacking for the bell/kilo and seeing how long you can hold on. I don't mean going for a final lap flyer as much as use everything you have to get into the top 3 or 4 riders and hold that position with all the energy you have. Make holding that spot your sprint for the win, then see if you still have more left to come around them before or after the final corner (assuming a crit) or 200m.

If you don't feel that you have the jump to make the right moves near the end, then likely too much zone 2/3/4 work and not enough interval work in the zone 5/6+ areas. Could also be not enough rest or a number of other things.