I confirmed that the box did arrive today. However, I had a hard time finding it. It wasn't by the mailbox. I didn't see it when I parked my bike in the basement. It wasn't upstairs. I went back to the basement figuring I had missed it. Sure enough, I had. There was a bag on the floor:
I unhooked the velcro strap, then reached in and grabbed the box. A bunch of stuff fell out. This is the box (not including the freewheel peeking out of the bag or the other stuff you see in the background):
I hope no good crap was lost.
Needless to say, I will get a new box. I think that going forward we might want to self-impose a weight limit on the box and/or not reuse the box and/or reinforce it in some way (at least, glue some extra cardboard into the corners)... More later when I've had a chance to go through things.