Old 08-25-14 | 06:44 AM
  #6  
echappist
fuggitivo solitario
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Joined: Jun 2009
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From: Northern NJ
ATL for less than two weeks after initial data collection and CTL for less than 3.5 months after initial data collection are pretty meaningless due to the way data are weighed. So the first this the OP should recognize is that his CTL, assuming the FTP is set correctly (big if is there hasn't been consistent testing), is likely quite a bit higher given all the zero values that need to be accounted.

In that sense, looking at his ATL once it has stabilized tells a better story. From late April to mid July, the lowest that ATL dips is 85 (once) and 95 (once), and other than these outliers, the OP never went below 110 for a good 2+ months. And for a good two months, never below 120. This is far more telling than a peak CTL as it suggests that weekly load for two months averages to 840 for 2 months, and if one assumes average TSS/hour of 60 (a very high assumption), this means 14 hours/week for 9 straight weeks. Or if one is more reasonable about the assumption, average of up to 17 hours/week. All this, from no winter training at all. As someone else suggested, not very sustainable.

It perhaps would surprise no one that the OP had to take long times off the bike in late July (perhaps already over reaching), during which his TSB rose to +30, and thinking that he's fully recovered, went back it again full bore for 2-3 weeks averaging 840 TSS/weeks. I (and countless others) have often done similar things thinking that 1-2 weeks off will offset over reaching symptoms, whereas it really is inadequate. Again, it surprises no one that this is not sustainable, and the OP probably needed another break in the last 10 days, this time with TSB shooting up toward +50. At this point, the over-reaching and burnouts are not just psychological and mental as they are actually physiological. His endocrine system has likely gone haywire by now due to all the training stimuli, and the body can no longer respond to the nonstop demands.

What the OP needs is a coach who knows enough and has enough command to dissuade the OP for his own worst inclinations and to moderate the training. Long and steady is the name of sustainable, year-after-year training, and this is far from what the OP is doing. The last note is that if the OP is shooting for one and only one Gran Fondo next year, 14-17 hours is just an overkill. There are much more efficient (and less draining) ways of preparing for a 100 mile gran fondo.
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