I agree with everyone saying too fast a ramp, don't quit riding in the winter, and you are overtrained so you need to take some time off.

However, for those trying to make something of the TSS/TSB/CTL/ATL- (chappy, your analysis is great, but....) I think it's probably all garbage data based on the fact that he WAGged the 250 initial FTP and hasn't tested at all until now. using an FTP value of 83% of actual is going to dramatically inflate the TSS/CTL/ATL numbers. Throw that analysis away and start over. Or maybe you could cherry pick a few numbers out of some hard shorter efforts from the last few months and back-populate some better FTP estimates.

What's everyone else running for a CTL during the race season? Mine is in the 70-85 range this year, which is the lowest ever, and I'm having the best season ever as well. A lot of that is non-fitness factors, to be sure, but the fitness seems to be there.