From your selection I too would go short sleeve base, long sleeve layer, light jacket top. I would layer the lighter tights and shorts if you have good warm winter riding boots or toe warmers. +1 on the gloves and hat.

If this is your first cold weather ride it will show you what your wardrobe is missing.

Look for decent entry level winter boots, you can combine toe warmers with those. Find some good winter gloves, even decently insulated winter gloves from CVS are good for those sub 30° rides, but you shouldn't need more than full finger gloves for this ride. Also, wool socks.

Have fun, stay warm, ride safe.