Lot of variables here, what usually gets cold on you first, how hard will you be going, do you usually sweat a lot.

My personnal experience with the cold, Canada Eh!, from commuting in the cold is to cover my head neck and hands. Anything else is warmed though effort. I would wear the short sleeve wicking under the light windbreaker. A dickie with ear-muffs and my rain cover over my helmet. I don't like having something against my head as it makes it sweat. My hands were always a problem, below freezing, but a good pair of ski gloves worked the best. They say to be careful with your knees but I never had that problem. If you wear glasses they can cause pain on the bridge of your nose if they get very cold.

Make a note of what worked in case it's a while before you get out in the cold again.

Good luck.