IME it's hard to make a hard rule around the subject of fat loss and muscle gain. 2 years ago, I lost 10 lbs. over a period of 9 months. I took inches off my waist, but didn't change my thigh measurement. So what does that mean? I was working out consistently at the time. My weight and thighs have stayed about the same since then, but I've put on waist fat and probably lost muscle off my upper body. Now that event season is over, starting this month I'm back on a consistent bike and gym program. I want to lose a little weight, put 1/2" on my thighs, keep my arms the same, but get stronger, both legs and upper body. We'll see how that goes. I'm a very slow gainer. Today: thighs 21", waist 35.5", arms 12.5", 153 lbs.
I don't count calories in or out. Waste of valuable working-out time IMO. I go by the scale and the tape. I also have one of those fancy body comp scales which seems to be good about comparative measurements.