Old 10-24-14 | 03:30 AM
  #22  
Walter S
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter
I love these visions of the future... even though none of them ever come true. I am often reminded of the huge lengths cities were going through in preparation for the increase in the number of horses. Then someone invented an affordable [horseless] cart that was powered by [something like] the newly developed lamp oil.

In 19th century France... this was a future vision of the rural postman in the year 2000.

That reminds me of elementary social studies class in the 3rd grade (1968). The text book showed a city in the year 2000. It included a shot where people traveled around the city in little vacuum tubes - a bigger looking version of the tubes they use at drive-thru bank tellers to send papers back and forth.

To see what people predicted makes them seem almost childish. You think "what were they thinking!". That's a good reason to apply some skepticism to almost everything we hear from "the experts" about what kinds of technology the future will bring - even the near future.

OTOH people invent things that nobody predicted. The internet comes to mind. We still don't have pervasive video phones like you saw in the 2001 movie. But we all have convenient access to a huge network of information and can interact collaboratively with the internet in ways that Arthur C. Clark and the like never dreamed of. Read old science fiction books. Nobody in those books was using anything like the internet. Sometimes people could submit questions to big all-knowing computers, like in Star Trek. But even then, it was not a social tool at all. And to do so you had to go to where that big computer or some kind of terminal was. People weren't walking around with handheld computers like our smart phones today.
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