Originally Posted by
wphamilton
I've used the household transportation survey and cross-check against other sources to estimate bicycle trips and mileage, then overall injury and fatality stats to piece together a very approximate probability of accident per mile and per trip. There are tabulations of accidents summarized by most of the factors that typically describe a commute, and by general categories of rider (age, sex, etc) by which you may arrive at a little better approximation.
You'll need to be willing to do a bit of research, and then to apply sound statistical reasoning. And be forewarned that much of the data is incomplete or dubious - one needs to evaluate and assign confidence intervals to the any calculations.
Or, alternatively, the use of good judgement based on knowledge of the conditions and danger. But I prefer math.
Thank you for your sarcasm and insult free answer. There are after all folks here who understand the importance of manners.
I took a different tack. When I got back into cycling after never having worn a helmet before, I thought about it. And the sheer desire to live a long life injury free decided for me. So now it's settled and it's already paid off.
Also, the fact that cycling helmets are really no big deal to wear helped a lot. The cost/benefit ratio is a good one.
Not so with motorcycles. I also rode motocycles without helmet in my misspent youth, but when I bought my last motorbike, I had to wear one, and I agree that it is best to do so. Good motorcycle helmets, however, are just terrible head cages, and do take away a lot of the fun. So I no longer ride a motorbike, it's too uncomfortable and the few close calls I had tell me that all those SUV that own the roads are too much to deal with.