Cooler weather often brings other factors increasing flat possibilities. Wet roads, more crap on the roads, greater riding on the edge of the road (where more crap is), tires are that much more worn, More load on the bike/body, less light for seeing the crap on the road, and less rider attention to the bike in general. We see far more flats early and late in the season (for the miles ridden) then in the Summer. Andy.