Originally Posted by
njkayaker
Yes. That's my problem with that study.
Originally Posted by
wphamilton 
We are comparing the risk of driving vs cycling to this drug store. That risk when cycling is 3-5 times the risk when driving. Do you disagree?
I don't know. Nor do you.
Getting a precise number for accidents per mile is difficult because we don't know precisely how many miles are actually traveled by bicycle. But I do know this much: estimates top out at 21 billion miles for cycling in the US per year. 726 deaths /21 Billion miles = 34. Data is good for auto passenger fatalities.
34 fatalities per billion miles traveled, bicycle
11.4 fatalities per billion miles traveled, passenger vehicle.
At the very least, since 21 billion miles is the very highest estimate for cycling, cycling a given distance three times more dangerous than driving.
Originally Posted by
njkayaker
From my estlmates based on the number of deaths, it seems to me that the risk of dying per hour is about the same for driving and riding. I suspect that people spend about the same amount of time transporting themselves whatever mode they use (and travel fewer miles when riding than driving).
I know where you're coming from, half of US trips are short, 5 miles or less, and very short rides take about the same time as driving. But still, you're comparing the cyclist who seldom or never drives to the driver who doesn't bike. That IS one way to compare risks. But I think that most people, me included, want to know the risk of riding to the post office vs driving there. I have a car in the driveway ready to go, bike in the hallway, and I'm going to Kroger. How much riskier, if any, to take the bike? I'm not saying that it's a significant risk either way, but to be honest it's at least three times the risk to cycle, more if we consider all injuries (and not just fatalities).