Originally Posted by
wphamilton
Yes, it IS how those rates are determined. After it's determined that in a given population, fewer accidents occur after a certain period of "clean" driving record, members of that population get reduced rates. It's still what you're calling "an average".
Yes, it's an average (that's why I used the term).
You still don't get that the average of the overall population does not apply to the subpopulation (when the subpopulation has different properties).
It is
wrong to say that the overall average applies to the subpopulation.
If you are a member of a safer subpopulation, the average risk to the overall population isn't
your risk.
If you are a safer rider, your risk might not be "three times" (
and that's likely an inaccurate measurement anyway using all riders). It seems silly to base much on it.
And the supposed increase in risk of cycling over driving might be compensated by reducing risk elsewhere (due to it being exercise).