I'm looking for some helpful buying decisions for my next bike. As a footnote, my wife and I will be buying a home and potentially starting a family soon, so this could be the last bike for a long, long time. For that reason, I've got to think long-term before I drop any coin, and that's where my dilemma is.

I have a '12 CAAD10-3 that I have some buyers lined up for. I've considered a new CAAD10-3, as I genuinely like how the bike rides (granted, I've never ridden anything else), the new stealth color scheme, the slightly lighter and more durable anodized finish, the 11-speed group, and the Hollowgram cranks. With the low cost of the CAAD, I could afford to put the Spidering on it, carbon bars, stem, and a different carbon post to give it a real nice, smooth ride and free up some weight. It's also cheap enough of a frame that I could possibly sell it off to upgrade in a few years.

But, like everyone else, I can't help but think if I'm going to buy something new and long-term, I should go carbon. I've considered a few options, with the new Tarmac Expert really standing out. I can get one for around $3,500, but that would mostly tap my budget out, so it'd just stay stock. While carbon is attractive, I'll admit I'm somewhat leery of riding a $3,000 frame I could break in one spill, because honestly, I couldn't afford to replace it in that situation.

These two options (and some other carbon bikes) are close enough in price/value that I'm having a hard time drawing any final conclusion. Cheaper aluminum with great aftermarket parts, or more of a stock carbon bike? (I already have wheels, so that doesn't play a part at all).