Originally Posted by
bikingshearer
I think this true all of the time, not just a lot of the time, and for everything that is bought and sold, not just bikes. You see something in the store. You think "I'm not paying that much for that." You don't buy it. You have determined that item's value to you, or at least what it's value to you isn't. Any statement of something's value is only an estimate based on recent sales of similar items. The more recent sales in the particular market and the greater the similarity between items (up to being identical with brand-new mass-produced items), the more likely the estimate will be. Something like a Confente is rare enough and the finite number of examples dissimilar enough (size, frame geometry, color, condition, etc.) that any estimate is an educated guess at best.
Flipping is absolutely an investment activity. It is a short-term investment strategy. Nobody flips anything - bikes, homes, or anything else - with the idea of losing money. It is just a variation of "buy low, sell high." Nothing more, nothing less.
The difference being the relative size of the supply, demand and relevant data points. If someone decides they don't want my Miyata 1000 at $550, there are likely other buyers at that price. There are a fair number of transactions and those transactions demonstrate the existence of a buyer pool at that price.
A Confente is a different beast...does the guy with deep pockets want it in that size? How many other buyers are there at 12k?