When I track weight, I graph it. I want to see a slope to that line that's trending to about the weight/week that I'm shooting for. There will always be ups and downs and flat spots, but over the long run, the trend should about follow that line. I try not to worry about variations unless the variation is persistent.

I know what you mean about choices. I don't count calories, but I know what does what and what feels about right, and I go by that. I eat bread, just not very often and not too much at one time. I don't limit anything, other than non-seafood meat which I don't eat at all, but I don't eat much of any one thing. F.i. I eat a little dark chocolate every day. JAMA just published a study showing that pesco-vegetarians have by far the lowest rate of colo-rectal cancer. They don't know why.

This year I've had the most success with fat loss that I've ever had by bulking up my muscles while living a relatively low calorie lifestyle. I highly recommend it and have lost body weight while doing it. In the past I've tried to just aerobic myself down but that wasn't as successful for dropping only fat.