Cable friction would be my first guess too.
If I were working on your bike at home, the FIRST thing that I would check would be the derailleur hanger alignment with my gauge. It doesn't have to be very far off to cause the kind of problem that you are describing. Hanger alignment only takes a couple of minutes to check and, even if it's spot on, it's good to eliminate that as the possible source of your shifting problem.
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