Not at all. What I'm saying is that the piling on of features gets a lot of them lost in the noise. At some point, few consumers look at them or even understand how to use them. For example, what percentage of users do you think actually use the feature of tweeting their position out on a regular basis? 2%? 5%? When that happens, it's like trying to sell a car based on the great cupholders.

I'm not trying to say that one is better than the other because they both have their strengths (i.e. "tastes great/less filling"). What I am saying is that the market is such that the PND based supplier's business, which they owned in whole before, is now probably approaching 50% or better shared with the smart phone based applications. That is not good news for PND suppliers because they are going to depend on volume to keep their costs down. Without low costs and relatively high selling price, their margins suffer and therefore their long term ability to answer the competition.

Already, RideWithGPS offers turn by turn directions through the RFLKT+ from their smartphone app. Again, an example of sidling of and taking market share. It's not perfect but it's pretty good and pretty good is the clear enemy to perfect.

Navigation is also offered through the smartphone by any number of apps. More sidling over and taking market share.

You can buy a LOT of cases for the price delta between the two approaches. More sidling up and doing the Pac-man thing on PND based market share.

Riding with my Edge 1000 on the handlebars alongside my RFLKT+ based system and comparing them leads me pretty directly to the conclusion that for most of what I think most cyclists want from a computer, there is little functional difference. The premier standalone GPS bike computer is not significantly advantaged over the capabilities of a smartphone based set up. Think of that for a minute. The down market units are going to have even a tougher time competing.

Then there is the question about what does the next iteration of the RFLKT or similar look like? v2.0 could, and probably will, wipe out even more differentiation at a reduced price. The technology is already there and is not rocket science. Low barrier to entry in this too. This is just asking for another competitor to jump in here.

I agree with you, the RFLKT+ is not the solution to everybody's needs (see explanation above). I am saying that the smartphone apps+hardware is moving over and pushing the PND guys out of large segments of this market that they previously owned and in which they enjoyed high selling prices now eroded. I also am saying that the vast majority of the bike computer market is and can be met by a smartphone app. There is less room for a PND based solution.

The problem is that the PND bike computer units are not a high volume product. Losing substantial market share is going to be tough in a market that is decent volume, but not high volume. Costs go up fast. It becomes harder to get a good ROI on expensive R&D. I think it's going to be a tough long term strategy for PND companies in this market just like the Garmin phone was when smartphones hit the market in 2007. Like I said, we've seen this movie before.

I like the characterization from above of the serious barrier that the smartphone guys have where the PND device would have to incorporate a phone in order to do attack the smartphone's strengths and what it can do already. That is a serious position to stake out and from a competitive perspective is going to be all but impossible to dislodge. If I were a PND CEO, that would be keeping me up at night.

J.