Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
Turn-by-turn (by itself) isn't enough. I'd like to try their app on a phone but it still has all the problem of smartphones (and the limitations of the RFLKT+).
Ridewithgps is very focused on bicycle navigation (and they are fairly smart), which might make them a good candidate for doing it right. Of course, to use the app, you need a $6 month subscription, which you have to include in the analysis of cost.
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
Navigation is also offered through the smartphone by any number of apps. More sidling over and taking market share.
Most of them characterized by various degrees of suckitude. Ridewithgps might be an exception. These might actually not taking over market share much at all (they may mostly appeal to people who would never buy a Garmin in the first place).
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
Riding with my Edge 1000 on the handlebars alongside my RFLKT+ based system and comparing them leads me pretty directly to the conclusion that for most of what I think most cyclists want from a computer, there is little functional difference. The premier standalone GPS bike computer is not significantly advantaged over the capabilities of a smartphone based set up. Think of that for a minute. The down market units are going to have even a tougher time competing.
For your limited use, the 1000 was a
silly purchase. The 1000 isn't really targeted to "most cyclists" anyway.
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
You can buy a LOT of cases for the price delta between the two approaches. More sidling up and doing the Pac-man thing on PND based market share..
But not "a LOT" of cases with batteries that are also weather resistant. Not even a lot of the better weather resistant cases that don't have batteries. And you need a mount too. And it would be
huge.
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
Then there is the question about what does the next iteration of the RFLKT or similar look like? v2.0 could, and probably will, wipe out even more differentiation at a reduced price. The technology is already there and is not rocket science. Low barrier to entry in this too. This is just asking for another competitor to jump in here.
The same things that would make the RFLKT+ better could be applied to the Garmins. The barrier isn't that "low" either. (It doesn't seem that people are buying the RFLKT+ in droves either.)
Garmin sells the Touring, which is mostly a 810 with some features disabled (and no WiFi/BT capability), for $250.
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
The problem is that the PND bike computer units are not a high volume product. Losing substantial market share is going to be tough in a market that is decent volume, but not high volume. Costs go up fast. It becomes harder to get a good ROI on expensive R&D. I think it's going to be a tough long term strategy for PND companies in this market just like the Garmin phone was when smartphones hit the market in 2007. Like I said, we've seen this movie before.
What may happen is that Garmin is driven out of the market
leaving cyclists with something that doesn't work as well for them.
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
just like the Garmin phone was when smartphones hit the market in 2007. Like I said, we've seen this movie before.
The Garmin phone was a not a good product. It's not the "same movie". It wasn't reasonable to have expected that Garmin could have been able to compete with established smartphone manufacturers in a mature industry. We don't have any details of the development process of the Garmin phone anyway.
Originally Posted by
JohnJ80
I like the characterization from above of the serious barrier that the smartphone guys have where the PND device would have to incorporate a phone in order to do attack the smartphone's strengths and what it can do already. That is a serious position to stake out and from a competitive perspective is going to be all but impossible to dislodge. If I were a PND CEO, that would be keeping me up at night.
It doesn't make sense to make the 1000 a cellphone and it appears that smartphones will not be well suited for a long while to what the 1000 does well. To me, the "connectivity" stuff is a secondary function.
Still, as you said, the "PND CEOs" might be worried. It's possible that the cyclists that find the 1000 useful should be worried too.