Originally Posted by
wphamilton
If we're waxing philosophical, this perspective must be feasible since people survive it but I have to disagree both in theory and in practice. Reason helps us before an event, and in reacting to an event, but after the fact our reasons are less relevant than the repercussions. We probably agree on that - maybe that's all you're trying to say in which case I take it back and say "spot on."
But it sounds like you want to disregard the probability and statistics because of a specific outcome, which would be completely wrong. Everything we experience is governed by some probability, which we may control to varying extent which makes it fundamental to rational, thoughtful behavior. Otherwise we're reduced to rote rule-following.
When no incident occurs, we do experience a non-zero positive benefit - the risk reduction we obtained when we made the decision. After the ride is over, and we didn't bump our head, it is hard to say there was any benefit to the helmet - and yet, if the decision was optimal for risk reduction prior to the ride, it is still optimal even in hind-sight knowing nothing happened. Because of the element of chance.
I disregard probability and statistics because I have something better, the real McCoy. And if I were to use the past to know what to expect in the future, no past is my relevant than my own. I need not probabilistic estimate to tell me what I know for sure, that cycling the way I do, where I do, I can hurt my head.
Statistics is mostly mind games. A succedaneum of real knowledge. Useful for dealing with large populations, almost useless for individual events. It's ALWAYS an estimate, because the future is not knowable. Therefore, the confidence factor pales next to what is knowable: (1) two-wheel vehicles keep an easy to lose, precarious balance at all times; (2) impacts to the head at cycling speeds can cause serious injury and death. That suffices for me.
Here is a statistic: One in seven Americans dies of heart problems. That is useful to direct funds for medical research at the national level, but it says squat about the condition of your heart, or mine. Similarly for helmet stats.