Originally Posted by
Tiglath
Congratulations. Before 2013 I could make a statement similar to yours. I've had bikes since age 3. Now I no longer can.
The good thing about the past is that we can state with all certainty how things have been. The bad thing is that it in no way determines what will happen in the future.
This seems totally at odds with your previous statement:
"I disregard probability and statistics because I have something better, the real McCoy. And if I were to use the past to know what to expect in the future, no past is my relevant than my own. I need not probabilistic estimate to tell me what I know for sure, that cycling the way I do, where I do, I can hurt my head."
If the past in no way determines what will happen in the future then why did you state that 'no past is [more] relevant than my own.'
You seem to be saying that now that you have had a bad crash you do regard the past as being relevant to your estimate of future events but prior to 2013, when your past record would have indicated no need for extra safety equipment that past experience was to be disregarded.
Seems rather inconsistent - and illustrates the need for statistics where the experience of a large number of people is gathered and analyzed to indicate the relative risks of different types of activities without each of us having to engage in the activity long enough to actually experience negative consequences.