Originally Posted by Tiglath

It is not inconsistent at all. The fact that people have expectations does not mean that the past determines the future.

Both heads and tails have 50/50 chance in a coin flip; that is the expectation. But if you get heads ten times in a row, there is a natural tendency to expect that tails are due soon, yet in no way the past determines that in the eleventh flip tails have a better chance. It's still 50/50.

When you live 50 years with good luck the fact that accidents only happen to other people sinks in and affects expectations. Yet your chances to have a accident are the same, regardless.

Similarly, I know accidents do not just happen to other people, so my expectations have changed, but not in the sense that, same as before the accident, I still don't know what to expect, so I wear a helmet, as I did when I had the first accident in my life. The only thing the past has determined is my certainty that I was right to be prepared.