Originally Posted by Tiglath

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You don't seem to grasp this contrast:

(1) For the population of NYC, you can actually turn the 14.3 % probability into concrete measures that will meet the needs the city is about to face regarding heart patients. Those are measures and resources you can enumerate and count, like number of hospital beds and doctors in cardiology departments, and the necessary equipment. And the prediction will turn out to be correct in a nicely approximate way. That is, for the population, probability is of great utility

(2) For the individual New Yorker there is nothing comparable. All you say is that the probability applies, but it signifies nothing further. A probability of 14.3% offers no guidance to the individual on anything practical, like how often to check the heart, and in the end inferences may turn out to be totally incorrect because that particular individual may not die of heart failure.
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