Originally Posted by
350htrr
I can see that the individual's chances may be totally different than the 14.3% of the group... Just like the bare headers here are saying their chances are lower of needing a helmet than the group because of where they ride, how they ride, their skill level... The individual can often have a different chance than the group because he doesn't fit the pre-disposition, profile of that particular event... JMO as I see it... As Tiglath is saying, statists like the 14.3% for heart attacks apply to hospital preparedness but for the individual, not so much, depending on lifestyle, hereditary traits... A particular individual could have a basically 0.0% chance of dying from a heart attack depending on lifestyle, and hereditary traits... JMO
Finally, after patient attempts someone grasps the obvious contrast.
You are correct, sir. Put another way yet
Statistics may predict that 1 in 7 will die of heart problems this year, but a hotter summer may cause more hearts to give out and make the final proportion 1 in 6, instead of 1 in 7, but the prediction will still have been a useful approximation, and preparations for it appropriate.
No such thing for the individual. For the individual exist only outcomes that include the individual 0 or 100%. No approximations.
Therefore, for the city the prediction removes most of the uncertainty from what to expect, which is of great utility.
In CONTRAST, for the individual the prediction removes next to no uncertainty from what to expect, which is of negligible utility.
Thus, the point to concede is about the WIDE discrepancy of the probability's utility, between city and individual.
If anyone can't see the contrast yet, run, don't walk to Lenscrafters.